COVID-19 Cases In India Can Rise To 1.3 Million By May: US-Based Study

According to a report, India could account 100,000 to one million cases of COVID- 19, if cases continue to rise at present rates. The study says that by the end of April there could be around 230,000 cases across the country.

Key takeaways-

• The study says that India could account 100,000 to one million cases of COVID-19.
• 13 experts were involved in this study. One of the experts was a professor from the Delhi School of Economics.
• This trend will depend on the proactiveness of the government to take measures to combat the pandemic.
• The prime minister has announced a complete lockdown of the nation for 21 days starting Tuesday midnight.

Bhramar Mukherji who is the chair of The University of Michigan School of Public weighed in. He said that by May 15 they are expecting 97,000 to 1.3 million people being affected across the country.

Details of the study

Thirteen experts were involved in this study. One of the experts was a professor from the Delhi School of Economics. These findings were based on reports of cases till March 2 across the country. These assessments and results also revolved around the daily data managed by the Johns Hopkins University (Center of System Science and Engineering).

The report further mentions“The predicted spike in cases will make it impossible for the healthcare providers to support the sheer volume of these cases. India has the most outstretched healthcare system where it is hard to provide health care in times of normal patient volume.”

The study was carried out by the COV-IND-19 Study Group of scholars and scientists and the analysis first appeared on Medium, a U.S. publishing platform.

Healthcare system in India

Reportedly, there are 15,980 isolation beds and 37,326 beds in quarantine available in India. These statistics hold true as of March 17. Also, keeping in mind the massive population of the country these figures roughly translate to a single isolation bed per 84,000 people and a single quarantine per 36,000 people. Also, in India, there is only one doctor available per 84,000 persons and a single bed in the hospital per 1,826 people. This data was collected by the Union Health Ministry.

Moreover, in medical facilities, doctors and nurses continue to lack essential protective gears and equipment.

This trend will depend on the proactiveness of the government to take measures to combat the pandemic. The report also says that India should increase its testing so that more confirmed cases can be accounted for. Also, India should start creating more facilities like China.

COVID- 19 in India, what is happening?

Till now India has accounted for more than 500 cases of the deadly COVID- 19 and the center has urged the state governments. The prime minister has announced a complete lockdown of the nation for 21 days starting Tuesday midnight. Also, PM says that if the condition will not be controlled in 21 days, it could set the nation back by 21 years.

Also Read: Janata curfew, what it means to citizens in times of Coronavirus

ICMR has registered 22 private labs for COVID- 19 testings. Also, 118 government labs are registered for testing. This network can test 12,000 samples daily.

Vipashyana Dubey is an intern with SheThePeople